Texas Holdem Strategy - Odds and Probabilities : Poker Player

Texas Holdem Strategy - Odds and Probabilities

One element of Texas Holdem poker strategy that every player needs to know and understand involves odds and probabilities. While Texas Holdem poker is a game of skill, it is also a game of chance, and in any game of chance you need to know the likelihood of certain outcomes in order to succeed. We express these probabilities of success in terms of odds.

One term you must know if you are to succeed in Texas Holdem is pot odds. Pot odds represent the amount the pot is offering you versus the amount you must risk to win that pot. For example if you have to call a bet of $100 to win a $400 pot, you are getting 400 to 100, or 4 to 1 pot odds. If you think you have a better than 4 to 1 chance to win the pot, it is correct to call. If not, you should fold.

How do you know what your odds are to win the pot? If you have an idea what you need to win, this is a relatively simple calculation. For example, if you have two suited cards and there are two of that suit on the board with one card to come, your odds or making your flush are about 4 to 1. How do we know this? Well there are six cards we have already seen, the two in your hand and the four on the board, leaving 46 unknown. There are nine possible cards of your suit remaining. If we assume that improving to a flush will give you the winning hand, your odds of winning the hand are 46 to 9, which reduces to roughly 4 to 1. It helps to know certain probabilities in Texas Holdem by heart, to avoid having to do too much calculating of odds at the table.

Here are some probabilities in Texas Holdem that it pays to know.

If you have a pocket pair, your odds of making a set (three of a kind) on the flop are about 8 to 1 against. Your odds of making your set by the river are 4 to 1 against. Your odds of improving from a set on the flop to a full house with two cards to come are about 2 to 1 against.

If you have two suited cards, your odds of flopping a flush are 118 to 1 against you. Your odds of flopping two cards of your suit are about 11 to 1. If you flop a four flush, your odds of making the flush with two cards to come are roughly 2 to 1, and as we have seen, with one card to come the odds are about 4 to 1. Your odds of making a straight from an open ended straight draw are about 5 to 1 against with one card to come, and about 2.5 to 1 with two cards.

Finally, you also may want to consider implied odds. This involves taking into account additional money you may win on subsequent streets if you hit your hand. It is possible that if you hit, it will be obvious and no one will give you more action, so be honest with yourself about whether you really have implied odds, based on the situation and the type of players you are facing.