What are the odds? Hold'em right there! : Poker Player

What are the odds? Hold'em right there!

There's no denying that odds and probabilities are a key factor in hold'em and need to be understood to a degree if anyone is to make it as a self respecting player. The chance element in poker makes it a liability for any player who does get to grips with the probability of certain outcomes. So, where to start?

Pot odds should be your first stop. They indicate to a player the following comparison: what the pot can offer versus the amount of cash that must be risked to win the pot. Think of it this way: would you call a $200 bet to win $800? The odds are 800 to 200, or more simply: 8 to 2 which equates to 4 to 1 odds (early math lessons reminder there!). Well, you would call if you thought you had a better than 4 to 1 chance of winning the pot. If not - you'd lay it down.

Simplistic, yes - but it takes time to master. Poker etiquette at any decent game won't allow slow playing just so you can get it figured out. So what's the secret? There's no genius involved - just memorise some basic starting points and you'll have a good helping hand.

Firstly; pocket pairs. You have odds of 8 to 1 against of making trips on the flop, and 4 to 1 against by the time you make the river. If you make trips - well done - but the odds of improving to a full house by the river are averaged at 2 to 1 against.

If your pocket cards are suited then a flush is much more against you than you would expect - over 100 to 1 against which is pretty shoddy. You could flop two more suited cards at about 11 to 1 against, and this reduces the odds of hitting the hand on the river to around 4 to 1 against.

If you have an open ended straight by the flop, then you've got a 4 to 1 against chance of cutting it. By the turn? Even better. There's a 2 to 1 against chance of scoring that hand.

In all cases the odds narrow - but consider the above scenario. Which would be the stronger to call that $200?

You'd call with a pocket pair that hit trips on the flop for sure – maybe even raise to double the bet to make the call stronger - seed the pot or lose a few players. What about a flush draw on the river? Or the open ended straight? Personally I wouldn't let it get that far with either - not for a 4 to 1 pot odds scenario. That for me would be too much risk - especially when pocket pairs have an immediate chance of winning and better odds of improving. For me, it would need a little something extra to make it work. I'd fold or push, depending on the opponents and my position. But then I'm a tight-aggressive player. Fancy a game?

Written by Liz Murray.